The visit of German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to Beirut on the 16th of this month is attracting significant attention, due to Germany's strategic position in Europe and internationally.

Moreover, and this is crucial, Germany has played an intelligence, political, and diplomatic role in many phases of the Lebanese war, especially in 2006, when it coordinated with Hezbollah and acted as a mediator with Israel. At that time, Wafic Safa, the former head of the liaison unit, coordinated with the Germans for the release of prisoners and the return of bodies. From this perspective, could Germany play a role now in the release of prisoners or diplomatically? Not forgetting its economic struggle due to the Ukraine war and the internal political situation in Germany after the election of President Steinmeier as Angela Merkel's successor, the situation remains unchanged. What does this visit mean— is it to support Lebanon, or could there be a role in the Lebanese file, specifically in the south? Not to mention that there is a German naval contingent participating in UNIFIL, and Germany always supports Lebanon with cultural programs and social assistance, among other things. Furthermore, the Munich Conference, held annually, primarily takes on a security, political, and diplomatic character, issuing important resolutions. Lebanon has never been absent from it.

What about this visit in form and substance? What can it give and offer to Lebanon? Is there any plan or role Germany intends to undertake at this stage?

Dr. Zakaria Hammoudan, an expert from the National Institute for Studies and Statistics and a specialist in European affairs, who is familiar with the main topics of the German president's visit to Beirut, told Annahar: “First, it must be noted that this visit is more about morale and economics rather than politics, as any visit outside the American standard at this stage neither advances nor delays matters, which is a clear point that requires no interpretation or speculation. Any visit outside Saudi Arabia's financial support for Lebanon also neither advances nor delays. In other words, the primary role in these circumstances and phases is politically and diplomatically for the United States at all levels, and similarly economically and financially for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”

But regarding the visit and its themes, Hammoudan added, “Frankly, it will not change anything in the equation. However, there may have been a military development in the region. Although I doubt the current possibility of an American-Iranian war, we must not forget that there is a German naval force in Lebanon, which the German president might inspect. There may also be a possibility for these forces to exit safely if dramatic security developments occur, meaning ensuring the safety of the contingent members.”

Hammoudan concluded by saying, “For the record, German intelligence is vital, with a prominent force and apparatus. Against this backdrop, this issue requires careful reading; the president might bring something related to the dramatic international developments happening in the region, but I reiterate that the main standard, role, and presence belong to the United States of America.”