The call made by French President Emmanuel Macron to his Lebanese counterpart Joseph Aoun is part of ongoing French efforts to help Lebanon emerge from the catastrophic situation caused by the war between Israel and Hezbollah.

Macron is convinced that launching negotiations between Lebanon and Israel could help achieve this, especially since the American administration views Lebanon primarily from this perspective. However, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has told the French that the time is not yet right for these negotiations, yet Macron insists on continuing his efforts in this regard.

When Emmanuel Macron spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump and raised the topic of Lebanon, it appeared to the French that the American side is interested in Lebanon only as a venue for conducting peace negotiations between the two countries.

The prevailing analysis in French circles following the Lebanese file is that Israel will not halt its war on Lebanon even if the conflict in Iran ends, because the Israeli side claims it wants to disarm Hezbollah just as it previously claimed it wanted to disarm Hamas in Gaza—yet the Israeli state did not succeed in ending Hamas. French observers are also concerned about internal conflicts in Lebanon involving refugees and the pressure this issue places on residents across different parts of the country.

However, economic sources view this as unlikely under the current circumstances, especially since no one knows when the war in Lebanon will end, and the IMF has clearly outlined the conditions for signing a staff-level agreement. French economic sources familiar with the Lebanese situation note that these conditions are currently unattainable for Lebanon, despite the country having begun a recovery.

A few months ago, according to these French economic sources, everyone was expecting positive growth ranging from 2% to 5%, but today it has fallen to between -3% and -4%, and the situation is far from resolved. The foreign currency reserves of the Central Bank of Lebanon have begun to decline, dropping by $400 million between February 15 and March 15. Nevertheless, IMF representatives held a scheduled meeting with Lebanese financial sector officials in Paris.

According to sources familiar with Israel’s regional policy, Israel does not want Hezbollah to disappear, as it provides an ideal pretext to strike wherever and whenever it chooses and to maintain a presence south of the Litani until Hezbollah is disarmed—a scenario that is unlikely to happen naturally. Israel maintains that it will withdraw only on its own terms and negotiate with Lebanon accordingly. No one can pressure Israel to withdraw unilaterally, and the United States supports its presence under the pretext of ensuring security, backing negotiations on Israel’s conditions. Under such circumstances, prospects for Lebanon’s economic recovery appear bleak.