The United States has taken a harsh stance toward Lebanon, blaming it for failing to disarm Hezbollah last year, with Washington issuing criticisms and reproaches in that context. At the same time, the U.S. has significantly distanced itself from supporting Lebanon by pressuring Israel to adhere to the ceasefire agreement that began implementation on November 27, 2024. Had it at least forced Israel to withdraw from the points it occupies, it would have provided the Lebanese state with considerable leverage, even if Hezbollah, in a new conflict, retaliated for the killing of Ali Khamenei whenever the "Revolutionary Guard" demanded it. The latter recently announced that it conducted a "joint operation" with Hezbollah against Israel, in a clear move to signal that ending the war in Lebanon is an Iranian bargaining card that Tehran is negotiating over, alongside the war it is waging against the United States and Israel.

Even if the war on Iran has taken unexpected dimensions, even for the United States and Israel, Lebanon’s limits and capabilities can still be somewhat understood, despite the widespread belief abroad and at home that strong pressures are necessary—particularly regarding Lebanon’s authorities—and that leniency cannot be granted. So far, leaked information suggests that Israel, with international backing, can continue its military operations against Lebanon, while at the same time holding the Lebanese government responsible for disarming Hezbollah. This is a difficult expectation under the current intense wartime conditions and cannot reasonably serve as a precondition for Israel to halt its war.

There are many criticisms of the Lebanese state for its slowness, if not its reluctance, to disarm Hezbollah, but claims that it has been repeatedly warned that failing to do so would force Israel to act are inaccurate, especially since prior commitments predated the arrival of the new government. However, granting Israel free rein to expand its occupation of Lebanon or continue its aggressions may not be the best course, particularly if the United States considers the importance of Lebanon’s stability amid growing fears of a social upheaval with political and sectarian dimensions.